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GPS 403 · Unit 5 of 6

Scenario Planning and Executive Response

Geopolitics and International Risk

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Unit overview

This unit develops scenario planning and executive crisis response using Solara Foods as the anchor. You will apply scenario axes, early warning indicators, crisis command structure, decision clock to a live decision: Publish scenario triggers linked to sourcing and pricing actions

Learning objectives

By the end of this unit, you should be able to:

  • Explain core vocabulary for scenario planning and executive crisis response in plain language with Solara Foods examples
  • Apply scenario axes to structure options, assumptions, and tradeoffs
  • Build reconciled evidence tables with leading indicators and guardrail metrics
  • Produce a decision memo with kill criteria and stakeholder dissent

Solara scenario

CEO war-games three geopolitical scenarios affecting 30% of Solara revenue. Executive team runs Taiwan strait and Gulf shipping scenarios

Lessons in this unit

  1. Foundations and framing
  2. Concepts, mechanics, and operating rhythm
  3. Frameworks, evidence, and tradeoffs
  4. Applied decisions, case analysis, and executive synthesis

Assessment

Complete the unit knowledge check and applied exercise after Lesson 4. The exercise asks for a two-page memo on Publish scenario triggers linked to sourcing and pricing actions with reconciliation checks and kill criteria.

Unit assessment

Complete each section below. Score 80%+ on the quiz to finish this unit's assessment.

50% applied project30% case work20% knowledge checks

Exercises

Apply what you learned in this unit with structured practice.

ExerciseApplied practice: Scenario Planning and Executive Response45 min
Complete a focused practice exercise on **Scenario Planning and Executive Response**. 1. Choose a real company, product, or situation you know. 2. Apply one core framework from this unit to analyze it. 3. Write your analysis in 300–500 words with a clear recommendation. 4. Cite at least one credible source.

Deliverable

300–500 word analysis document saved to your portfolio under GPS 403.

Rubric

  • • Framework applied correctly (not just named)
  • • Specific evidence from a real example
  • • Clear recommendation with tradeoffs acknowledged
  • • Professional writing with source citation
ExerciseDrill: Scenario Planning and Executive Response30 min
Work through the practice problems in the unit lesson without looking at notes. Then check your work against the lesson and write a short reflection: - What you got right - One mistake you caught - One concept to review before the next unit

Deliverable

Problem solutions + 150-word reflection in your GPS 403 workbook.

Rubric

  • • Attempted all practice items before checking answers
  • • Honest reflection on errors
  • • Identifies a specific review action

Case analysis

Analyze a case using frameworks from this unit.

CaseCase analysis: Scenario Planning and Executive Response60 min
Analyze a real business case through the lens of **Scenario Planning and Executive Response**. Choose a public company event, HBR-style case, or documented decision. **Deliverable structure:** 1. Situation summary (150 words) 2. Analysis using this unit's frameworks (400 words) 3. Recommendation (150 words) 4. Risks and what would change your mind

Deliverable

2-page case write-up in your portfolio.

Rubric

  • • Case facts are accurate and sourced
  • • Analysis uses unit frameworks explicitly
  • • Recommendation is justified with tradeoffs
  • • Risks are specific, not generic

Knowledge quiz

Check your understanding before marking the unit complete.

1. Solara Foods faces: CEO war-games three geopolitical scenarios affecting 30% of Solara revenue. Which framing best matches executive decision practice?

2. Which evidence label is correctly applied for Solara Foods?

3. Omar Haddad asks which framework fits Executive team runs Taiwan strait and Gulf shipping scenarios. Best answer?

4. Finance challenges a $930M-scale recommendation in GPS 403. What passes scrutiny?

5. Which kill criterion is strongest for scenario planning and executive crisis response?

6. Stakeholder dissent is healthiest when:

7. Best one-sentence decision ask for this unit?

8. Solara Foods operates in 42 markets. What mistake should you avoid?

Next unit: Governance, Intelligence and Resilience →